Thunder

When the Thunder traded James Harden to the Rockets last October, I did not understand the thought process.  But I gave them the chance to prove me wrong because they had earned the benefit of the doubt, they have now lost that benefit.

I feel the Thunder's biggest mistake was using flawed ideas and narratives to asses the team, rather than looking at stats and advanced metrics.  That summer the Thunder were just coming off an NBA Finals loss to the Heat where Harden played very poorly.  Harden was the main focus of the blame game (surprisingly not Westbrook this time), and people were questioning the mental part of his game. Yes, he was bad, but he was only 23 and playing in his first NBA Finals series.  Players have bad series, maybe the match-ups aren't in their favor, or they break under the amount pressure put on them (like Lebron in the 2011 Finals).  They put too much weight on the Finals, and ignored the fact that Harden was great for them all year long.  He was the force that pushed them past the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.  

With one year left on his rookie deal the Thunder had a choice.  Sign Harden to an extension now, trade him, or let him play out his contract and make the decision after the season. If the Thunder decided to sign Harden they would of been slightly over the cap, but at the end of the season they could use the Amnesty Clause on Kendrick Perkins making 8 million dollars a year.  But the Thunder love Kendrick Perkins because he provides toughness and leadership, things that can't be quantified.  But he is also really bad at basketball. His PER (Player Efficiency Rating) in 2011-12 numbers ranked him 45th out of 48 qualifying centers in the NBA (he was dead last in 2012-13). It suggests he should just stand out of bounds when his team is on offense.  Though Perkins is a good defender he is also injury prone, and on the downside of his career. If they Amnestied Perkins they would be under salary cap, and have a better basketball team.

They could not reach a contract extension with Harden before the 2011 season so they decided to trade him to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and a 2013 1st round draft pick (ended up being the 12th pick). Martin was a solid role player, age 29, and on his final year of his contract like Harden.  He was basically Harden's short term replacement, only worse.  Lamb was reportedly the player the Thunder really loved.  He was the 12 pick of the most recent draft.  I don't know what the Thunder saw in Lamb, he was a good slasher in college, decent defender, but he can't shoot.  He shot 33 percent from 3 point land in college, and if you can't shoot 3's in the NBA at the shooting guard position you become Tony Allen or Lance Stephenson, a good bench guy.  Not a starter and far from the caliber of James Harden.

The Thunder had a good regular season but it was clear they weren't the same team without Harden and it showed in the playoffs.  In the first round against Houston Russell Westbrook got injured. With Westbrook out they became too dependent on Kevin Durant and lacked a second scoring option, they ended up losing to the Grizzlies in the second round.

Coming into this offseason I thought it was clear what their focus should be.  First, amnesty Perkins to free up 8 Million in cap space. Next find a scorer, or somebody who could shoot such as J.J. Reddick, Kyle Korver or Nate Robinson, somebody who could replace Kevin Martin who left for Minnesota.  Instead they kept Perkins and failed to sign anyone of note. This was a team that was built to compete for championships, but for the second straight year they're going into the year with a weaker roster.

I feel the Royals and Thunder got their plans mixed up.  The Thunder needed one more piece to challenge the Heat. Possibly not even that if you factor in the expected regression of the Heat, and expected progression Durant, Harden and Westbrook would make.  Instead the Thunder traded away a star for a good role player, a project, and a draft pick.  The Royals on the other hand were a 76-80 win team after their trade for Ervin Santana and expected progression.  But they thought trading Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis could bring them to the promise land of 90 wins and playoff berth.  To compound the problem, both secondary parts (the long term plan) of the deal, Lamb and Davis have been disasters, and the players they kept and relied on, Perkins and Francoeur were terrible.

If the Thunder don't advance far in this years playoffs questions will start to be asked about the future of Kevin Durant.  He has 3 years left on his deal, and if the Thunder don't supply him with a championship level team, this situation could get uglier.