Thunder

When the Thunder traded James Harden to the Rockets last October, I did not understand the thought process.  But I gave them the chance to prove me wrong because they had earned the benefit of the doubt, they have now lost that benefit.

I feel the Thunder's biggest mistake was using flawed ideas and narratives to asses the team, rather than looking at stats and advanced metrics.  That summer the Thunder were just coming off an NBA Finals loss to the Heat where Harden played very poorly.  Harden was the main focus of the blame game (surprisingly not Westbrook this time), and people were questioning the mental part of his game. Yes, he was bad, but he was only 23 and playing in his first NBA Finals series.  Players have bad series, maybe the match-ups aren't in their favor, or they break under the amount pressure put on them (like Lebron in the 2011 Finals).  They put too much weight on the Finals, and ignored the fact that Harden was great for them all year long.  He was the force that pushed them past the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.  

With one year left on his rookie deal the Thunder had a choice.  Sign Harden to an extension now, trade him, or let him play out his contract and make the decision after the season. If the Thunder decided to sign Harden they would of been slightly over the cap, but at the end of the season they could use the Amnesty Clause on Kendrick Perkins making 8 million dollars a year.  But the Thunder love Kendrick Perkins because he provides toughness and leadership, things that can't be quantified.  But he is also really bad at basketball. His PER (Player Efficiency Rating) in 2011-12 numbers ranked him 45th out of 48 qualifying centers in the NBA (he was dead last in 2012-13). It suggests he should just stand out of bounds when his team is on offense.  Though Perkins is a good defender he is also injury prone, and on the downside of his career. If they Amnestied Perkins they would be under salary cap, and have a better basketball team.

They could not reach a contract extension with Harden before the 2011 season so they decided to trade him to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and a 2013 1st round draft pick (ended up being the 12th pick). Martin was a solid role player, age 29, and on his final year of his contract like Harden.  He was basically Harden's short term replacement, only worse.  Lamb was reportedly the player the Thunder really loved.  He was the 12 pick of the most recent draft.  I don't know what the Thunder saw in Lamb, he was a good slasher in college, decent defender, but he can't shoot.  He shot 33 percent from 3 point land in college, and if you can't shoot 3's in the NBA at the shooting guard position you become Tony Allen or Lance Stephenson, a good bench guy.  Not a starter and far from the caliber of James Harden.

The Thunder had a good regular season but it was clear they weren't the same team without Harden and it showed in the playoffs.  In the first round against Houston Russell Westbrook got injured. With Westbrook out they became too dependent on Kevin Durant and lacked a second scoring option, they ended up losing to the Grizzlies in the second round.

Coming into this offseason I thought it was clear what their focus should be.  First, amnesty Perkins to free up 8 Million in cap space. Next find a scorer, or somebody who could shoot such as J.J. Reddick, Kyle Korver or Nate Robinson, somebody who could replace Kevin Martin who left for Minnesota.  Instead they kept Perkins and failed to sign anyone of note. This was a team that was built to compete for championships, but for the second straight year they're going into the year with a weaker roster.

I feel the Royals and Thunder got their plans mixed up.  The Thunder needed one more piece to challenge the Heat. Possibly not even that if you factor in the expected regression of the Heat, and expected progression Durant, Harden and Westbrook would make.  Instead the Thunder traded away a star for a good role player, a project, and a draft pick.  The Royals on the other hand were a 76-80 win team after their trade for Ervin Santana and expected progression.  But they thought trading Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis could bring them to the promise land of 90 wins and playoff berth.  To compound the problem, both secondary parts (the long term plan) of the deal, Lamb and Davis have been disasters, and the players they kept and relied on, Perkins and Francoeur were terrible.

If the Thunder don't advance far in this years playoffs questions will start to be asked about the future of Kevin Durant.  He has 3 years left on his deal, and if the Thunder don't supply him with a championship level team, this situation could get uglier.

Royals Outlook

I'm tired of the Royals, I'm tired of the losing, but most of all I'm tired of the incompetence.  This is a new low for me.  In the past I could always look forward to seeing these prospects turn into stars, how much longer can we wait?

The Royals are on pace for about 75 wins this year. How much better will they be next year?  Here's a breakdown of each position looking at how many wins they can improve on next year.

First Base: Eric Hosmer:  What does Hosmer bring to the table?  Decent defense, decent average, decent power. I think he'll improve a little bit next year but from what I've seen he's not going to turn into the superstar we all hoped. +1 WIN

Second Base: HAHAHA: At this point it is pretty clear that the Royals don't like Johnny Giovatella.  After 40 PA's this year, Johnny G has been sent back down, and here comes Chris Getz again.  The odds are that Getz will be the second baseman going into next year, and that means. -0 WINS (I put the negative there to reinforce my feeling of Getz)

Shortstop:  Alcides Escobar:  After a breakout year where he almost hit .300, Escobar is back to his old ways.  He has been very bad at the plate this year with a slash line of .242/.272/.321.  Right now he's a replacement level player entering the prime of his career. I don't think he's as bad as he's shown this year, but I think even with his defense he's a below average to average shortstop. +1 WIN

Third Base: Mike Boooostakas:  He and Getz have been battling for the "I'm going to pee now, because I'd rather watch the commercials" award. I still think he can figure it out, but at this stage he's got a long ways to go to become an asset for this team.  Hopefully he can raise his average to a respectable .260 and hit 15-20 home runs a year. Oh that's right, you can't hit home runs in Kaufman Stadium (according to Dayton Moore), let's revise that number to 3-4. +2 WINS (mainly because he's been so bad)

Catcher: Salvador Perez:  This guy is a real joy to watch and is becoming a star.  The question is, has he peaked as player? Or is there still room to grow?  Right now he's worth 3-4 wins above a replacement level player, which is great.  To take the next step he needs to improve his walk rate, and slugging percentage which has quietly dropped 80 points this year.  I think he can improve a little bit next year, +1 WIN

Designated Hitter: Country Breakfast:  I didn't like the nickname at first but I'm becoming a fan of it. He has had a bit of a down year, but what he has lost in average he's gained in OBP. It's great having Butler in the lineup, I think he'll improve his power next year so... +1 WIN

Left Field: Alex Gordon:  Where would the Royals be if they gave up on Gordon (which nobody would of blamed them)? He's become a franchise player and one of the most valuable in the league. Though he's fallen off a little bit at the plate he's still the most valuable player on the team. I except the same out of Gordon next year. +0 WINS

Center Field: Lorenzo Cain:  He's never been somebody I've really liked.  I love watching him play defense, but at the plate I feel he's way too aggressive.  He's improved on that a little bit but after a hot start his average has dropped all the way to .258, with very little power.  He's not bad, but players like Cain aren't going to win you championships. +0 WINS

Right Field: Wil Myers:  Myers has been great taking over a dire need for the Royals. Jeff Francouer was so bad, but thankfully we had a top prospect waiting to take over. Since his call up Myers has hit .310 with 4 home runs and 3 steals.  He'll be a very valuable player for years to come, and at such a cheap price. I'M NOT GOING TO LET IT GO

Pitching:  It's so hard to predict pitching from year to year. The staff has been great this year with the exception of Wade Davis who has almost countered all the good production Shields has had.  Looking into next year, I see the pitching being worse. We're not going to have Santana, and Guthrie will be a year older (and he's been very lucky this year). The positives are that Shields should stay productive, Wade Davis will be out of the rotation, and prospects Kyle Zimmer and Yordona Ventura could be ready. Hopefully Glass will continue to invest money into the team this offseason, but relying on him to do so isn't a safe bet.

When I look into to next season I don't see much reason for hope and optimism, maybe a .500 team.  Another negative about this year is the lack of injuries holding the team back.  There's no excuses like, "Well... Salvy missed the first half" or "Shields has been dealing with a strained oblique." Ultimately this mess falls on Dayton Moore. Though Glass hasn't given him free reign, he has given him many resources and opportunities to build a contender, which he has failed to do.  I think this year may be his last as Royals General Manager.

This is my first post in a long time, hopefully everybody enjoys.  Also I've started tweeting, you can follow me here  https://twitter.com/johngrosdidier  or just search @johngrosdidier

Royals Outlook (Part 1)

I've tried to look at the Wil Myers trade as a good thing, but I simply cannot.  The Royals are making a move to win now, with a roster that is not ready to win now.  This is still and young and developing team that won 72 games last year.  I'm not optimistic about this season or the direction the team is going, but I'm still going to be a fan, and here is part one of my predictions for the Royals.

First Base:  Kila Ka'aihue:  Maybe Hosmer wasn't that bad last year, but maybe he was.  Hosmer did not look like a MLB player last year.  He swung at everything and formed many bad habits.  People believe since he was a top prospect, that he'll bounce back this year no questions asked.  But if you saw him play last year you were never confident he was going to get a hit.  Don't worry though, Jeff Francouer, being the great clubhouse guy that he is, has worked with him so all should be solved.  My prediction: .260/.320/.450  Avg/OBP/Slug.

Second Base:  Chris Getz/ Johnny G:  I don't know who I want to win this job.  Chris Getz doesn't get the ball out of the infield, but plays good defense.  Johnny Giovatella hasn't proven he can hit or play defense, but has a little upside.  Yost always comments that they know Johnny G can hit, really?  In 349 at bats his stat line reads .242/.271/.340, I'm not confident in either player, Getz will probably get the job, get hurt at some point (like he always does) and give Gio another chance.  Good thing Robinson Cano is going to be a free agent, and he loves KC, perfect match.  My Prediction:  .255/.325/.375

Shortstop:  Alcides Escobar:  Escobar was one of the few pleasant surprises for the Royals last year.  He hit .293 last year, which is really good, but can he repeat it?  Another question is, can he improve his walk rate, which was still low last year.  If I could give this team one message it would be improve the team plate discipline.  I know I've mentioned this a lot but I don't get the sense from the Royals that on base percentage means anything, it's not the 1970's guys.  My Prediction .270/.320/.395 +good defense

Third Base:  Mike Moustakas:  He hasn't been criticized or really talked about too much, but he hasn't been that good.  His biggest question coming in was defense and proved that he is a good third baseman.  But he hasn't proven he can hit and to be honest "The Greatest Farm System Ever" isn't looking that good.  I don't know what to expect from him, because he didn't really improve from his rookie year.  My Prediction:  .255/.315/.430

Catcher:  Salvador Perez:  Salvador Perez was supposed to be a defensive catcher who hit .250, problem is he's hitting .311 through two half seasons.  You expect that average to drop this year, the question is how much.  Will he drop to .280, which will make him a top five catcher in baseball with his defense.  Or drop to .250 which would still make him a good catcher and an asset for what the Royals are paying him.  My Prediction:  .270/.325/.450

I will evaluate the outfield/DH, and pitching staff in future posts. Hope you enjoyed this post, let me know if you like the style or anything I can improve on.

State of the Royals

The Royals' offseason has been very disappointing for me.  The Wil Myers trade is part of it, but I think the bigger picture for me is that the Royals are not a smart organization.

They started the offseason by firing their hitting coach.  I liked Kevin Seitzer but if their was one knock on him it was the overall plate discipline of the team.  But the reasoning for the firing was because the Royals were not hitting enough home runs.  If you watched the Royals last year you never thought "wow, if we could just hit more home runs we could contend."  You thought "stop trying to hit a home run every time." Six of our starting position player I consider to have bad plate discipline, Hosmer, (the worst) Moustakas, Salvador Perez, (has been able to get away with it) Cain, Giovatella, and Wil Myers we are unsure of yet, oh wait... shit.  Yes some of those have the potential to hit home runs, but the overall message to the team shouldn't be hit more home runs, it should be stay patient.  I've heard rumors that the Royals are going to move in the fences but that hurt a lot of the pitching staff if they did, especially Chen.

They resigned Hochevar... I'll move on.

I don't want to break down the Wil Myers trade again but I feel the Royals made a dumb decision.  They had a need in right field, and in the starting rotation.  Wil Myers fit the need, and was under contract at a great price for 6 years.  We traded him to fill another need and took on 10 million in salary (16 if you count Davis).  I know the Royals never considered this, because free agency is a tough concept to grasp, and they are already spending so much money (sarcasm), why not sign Michael Bourn.  They needed an outfielder, and a leadoff man, he fits both.  And at 4 years and 48 million the price wasn't too high, you also can't make the argument that he wanted to go to a contender because he went to a team at the same level of the Royals.  It worries me a little that he was available this late but I think he would of fit in Kansas City.  If the Royals made that move I would hate the Wil Myers trade a lot less.



I'm thinking about posting soccer on my, let me know what you think.



I would like to end this post by asking anybody... ESPN, if they want to take back anything they said in the past couple years about Lebron... nobody?  I think Lebron will retire as the best that ever played, Jordan will have the "best scorer" title but Lebron's all around game sets him apart.  Call me crazy but it's my opinion.

Sporting KC

Sporting KC

More good news from Sporting KC today, they will be hosting the 2013 MLS All Star Game.  The MLS All Star Game is a collection of Major League Soccer's top players vs. one of the top european clubs like Chelsea or Manchester United.  I am really excited, and hopefully the tickets will be somewhat affordable, because I really want to go.  Sporting KC got the All star game because Livestrong Sporting Park is the best venue for American soccer, not because it was "our turn" as was the case for the Royals.  MLS has very few chances to be on the global soccer scene but this is one of them.  Europeans hate American soccer, so this is our chance to prove we belong.

If anybody reading this is interested in getting into soccer let me know.  How I started following soccer was through a friend.  I bombarded him with texts everyday asking him about this team, or that player, I want this game to grow, so fire away with questions.  I'm also thinking about starting a soccer series on my blog, helping educate my readers on the top players, clubs, leagues, and how everything works, because it is somewhat complicated.

Sorry for the short blog post, I wanted to get something out to you guys, I hope to write more soon.